09 September 2008

So, as one may, or may not, have noticed, the Major League Baseball regular season is winding down, and there are many interesting playoff runs heating up, but I don't want to talk about that. Nor do I wish to talk about the AL MVP race (Dustin Pedroia will probably win, but, well, Please? There are two or three better candidates, but anyway...). The topic today: Pitching. More appropriately the title of Best Pitcher in the AL.

Now, don't get me wrong, Cliff Lee will deservedly win the AL Cy Young. He's having quite possibly the most dominating season any pitcher has ever had: 21-2 in 28 starts, 201.2 innings, 51 earned runs and an absurd 5.5-1 strike out to walk ratio (in total, 154 K to 28 BB). But who would you rather have (out of the top 5 in the AL) starting the one game your team absolutely needed to win? I say John Lester. It makes sense if you look at it. Let's start with the stats, throwing out Daisuke Matsuzaka and Felix Hernandez, because lets be honest, there's no way those two are the third and fourth best pitchers in the AL, respectively, this leaves Lee, Roy Halladay and Lester. So, stats:

Lee: 201.2 IN, 184 hits, 51 ER, 28 BB, 154 K, 21-2, 2.28 ERA.
Halladay: 218.0 IN, 193 hits, 64 ER, 34 BB, 185 K, 18-9, 2.64 ERA.
Lester: 189.1 IN, 188 hits, 68 ER, 60 BB, 138 K, 14-5, 3.23 ERA.

So by the straight stats, Lester is clearly third best of the trio. However, he leads the troika with the fewest total bases allowed and has induced the most double plays. On top of that, he is a 24 year old left-handed pitcher, with a no-hitter to his credit this season. Those two facts, coupled with the expanded stats, bear out that Lester is the best of the three. 

Anyone care to disagree?


1 comment:

Will said...

Lee has got to be the hands down #1. He's on an absolutely dreadful team and has managed to win 1/3 of the total wins for the team. Lester is an interesting choice, but you don't win the Cy Young by inducing lots of double plays.

Homer.